Despite a wave of headlines suggesting easing tensions in the Middle East, there’s no clear confirmation of a lasting ceasefire involving Iran. And the market knows it.
Futures are modestly higher, but this isn’t a full risk-on move.
Oil remains elevated, volatility is still present, and institutions appear to be waiting, not committing.
That kind of hesitation matters.
Because when markets truly believe the risk is gone… they surge.
That’s not what we’re seeing.
Instead, we’re seeing a market that’s pricing in uncertainty, not resolution.
And historically, this type of setup doesn’t last long, it resolves with a decisive move.
The question isn’t direction yet.
It’s timing.
We’re watching closely for confirmation at the open, volume, sector rotation, and whether smart money steps in… or steps back.
When that decision is made, the move tends to be fast.
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