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Pre-Market Brief | Tuesday, August 25, 2026

Research Desk · August 25, 2026

The Setup

Futures are green after Monday's chip-led fade.

Nvidia reports tomorrow night.

Most of today is positioning ahead of it.


Where Futures Sit

Nasdaq 100 futures up 0.64 percent. S&P 500 futures up 0.33 percent. Dow futures up 0.22 percent.

Monday was a split tape. The Dow gained 0.26 percent to 53,417.16 while the Nasdaq Composite lost 0.76 percent on a chip selloff.

Staples, utilities and financials led. Energy and technology lagged.

Macro Pulse

Bessent expanded sanctions on Iran. Tehran vowed retaliation and pointed at Gulf shipping chokepoints. Oil fell anyway, with WTI off about 2 percent near $83.32.

The 10-year yields 4.71 percent. Fed funds futures put roughly a 42 percent probability on a rate hike in September. Not a cut.

New home sales and consumer confidence at 10:00 AM ET.

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Enough to turn $1,000 into $80,000.

Tickers To Watch

NVDA: Reports tomorrow after the close. The week is priced around it.
AVGO: Closed at $361.00, down 2 percent, extending a multi-session slide.
MRVL: The other side of the Broadcom trade. Up roughly 155 percent this year.
ZM: Reports after today's close. Street looks for $1.48 on $1.27 billion.
NVTS: Up about 6 percent premarket on a deal to buy Claros.

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Stock Highlight: Broadcom (AVGO)

Nvidia sells the chip everyone can buy. Broadcom tailors one to a single customer's workload. Off-the-rack versus a bespoke suit.

The business is working. AI semiconductor revenue reached $10.8 billion last quarter, up 143 percent. Management guided this quarter to $16 billion.

The stock is not. Shares near $361 sit roughly 25 percent below June's high of $481.57, up about 5 percent this year while Marvell ran 155 percent.

Two reasons. Marvell disclosed an expanded Google chip deal on August 19, which ends Broadcom's near-monopoly story at its most important customer.

And Broadcom is reportedly arranging more than $60 billion of debt to help customers buy chips. That is a car dealer co-signing loans on its own inventory. It works beautifully until buyers miss payments.

At roughly 60 times earnings.

Bottom Line

Green futures the day before a Nvidia print are positioning, not conviction.

The bigger tell is not in the chips. It is a 42 percent hike probability sitting next to a 4.71 percent 10-year.

Not investment advice. This is a research publication, not a financial advisor. Prices and figures are point-in-time snapshots and move daily. Do your own research and consider your own situation before making any investment decision.

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