NVDA Tonight. The Whole Year Rides on It.
The rebound has one source: oil. WTI is down 1.9% to $102.14 after Trump postponed his Iran decision again. Equity relief came from the commodity... not from anything fundamental.
The bond market hasn't relented. The 30-year hit 5.197% yesterday, a 52-week high. The 10-year is at 4.687%. Strategists are calling Treasuries "firmly in the danger zone." That is the cost of capital every AI valuation gets discounted by.
Two catalysts today. FOMC minutes at 2:00 p.m. ET... the first window into the Warsh-era Fed's thinking. NVDA after the close. Consensus is $79.2 billion in revenue and $1.78 EPS. Polymarket has Nvidia beating at 90% odds.
Watch this name too: Alibaba unveiled its own AI chip overnight, positioned directly against Nvidia. The moat is being tested in real time.
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