Voters Decide Tonight. (NYSE: RTX)'s $340 Billion Order Book Is Already Signed.
Research Desk · November 3, 2026
RTX Corporation logo, via Wikimedia Commons. Shown for editorial identification.
- RTX (NYSE: RTX) owns Raytheon missiles, Pratt & Whitney jet engines and Collins Aerospace, so it gets paid by the Pentagon and by the airlines at the same time.
- Its third quarter brought $25.0 billion in sales (up 11%), adjusted earnings of $2.26 a share (up 33%), a raised full-year outlook, and a record $340 billion backlog, more than half of it commercial.
- The shares sit near $203, about 11% below their August high, at roughly 26 times this year's expected earnings, with a $2.92 annual dividend and a beta near 0.3.
Americans go to the polls today. All 435 House seats and 35 Senate contests are on the ballot, and most results will arrive after the closing bell.
Wall Street is not waiting calmly. Dow futures were down roughly 0.8% before the open. Apple slid about 4.5% after warning that rising memory-chip costs will squeeze its holiday margins.
The Nasdaq-100 has now closed more than 10% below its record, a formal correction. Oil is back near $98 a barrel, and the 10-year Treasury yield sits close to 4.9%.
For a retirement-minded investor, the question on a day like this is simple. What do you own that does not need tonight's results to go any particular way?
One answer is a company whose customers have already signed the paperwork. That company is RTX.
Three Businesses, Two Customers, One Paycheck
Most people still know RTX by its old names. It used to be Raytheon Technologies, and before that United Technologies.
Today it runs three units. Raytheon builds missiles and air-defense systems, including Patriot, Tomahawk and AMRAAM. Pratt & Whitney builds jet engines. Collins Aerospace makes everything from cockpit electronics to landing gear.
The real-life comparison is a car dealership's service bay. The dealer makes a modest profit selling you the car. The steady money comes from every oil change, brake job and tune-up for the next fifteen years.
Jet engines work the same way, only bigger. An airline may fly a Pratt engine for decades, and every scheduled overhaul, spare part and repair flows back to RTX.
Missiles follow a different rhythm. Once a stockpile is fired or shipped overseas, it has to be rebuilt, and those orders tend to come in multi-year contracts.
Why the Ballot Matters Less Than It Looks
Defense spending is clearly on the ballot in spirit. Congress approved roughly $900 billion for defense in fiscal 2026, and the White House has asked for $1.5 trillion for fiscal 2027.
Investors have been trading that tension. In mid-October, defense names slipped as some traders bet on a change in control of Congress, with RTX among the decliners.
Here is the part that gets lost in the noise. Of RTX's $340 billion backlog, $176 billion is commercial aerospace. That half of the order book is driven by airline traffic and engine overhauls, not by appropriations bills.
The defense half is substantial too, at $164 billion. It has nearly doubled in nine months, from about $107 billion, and includes multi-year production awards for Tomahawk and AMRAAM missiles.
Think of a home builder with a full order book. A new town council can change the zoning for future projects, but the houses already under contract still get built. A signed contract is far harder to unwind than a budget headline.
A Quarter That Raised the Bar
The October 20 report was strong across the board. Sales reached $25.0 billion, up 11%, or 12% excluding currency and portfolio changes.
Adjusted earnings came in at $2.26 a share, up 33% from a year ago and well ahead of the roughly $1.78 analysts expected.
Management raised the full-year outlook. It now sees sales of $97.0 billion to $97.5 billion and adjusted earnings of $7.65 to $7.75 a share, up from $7.10 to $7.25.
Free cash flow guidance rose to $9.0 billion to $9.2 billion. The quarter also brought more than $81 billion in new commercial and defense awards.
For income investors, the dividend stands at $0.73 a quarter, or $2.92 a year. The next ex-dividend date is November 20.
The Risks Worth Naming
The headline beat had help. About $0.25 of the $2.26 came from a one-time refund of tariffs, which will not repeat.
Cash flow lagged earnings. Third-quarter free cash flow fell 47% to $2.1 billion, and the full-year number depends on a strong fourth quarter.
Pratt & Whitney took a $363 million charge after an airline customer went bankrupt. It is a reminder that a commercial backlog is only as sturdy as the airlines behind it.
The engine fleet is still working through an older powder-metal defect, with an estimated $700 million cash cost this year. And management has held off on formal 2027 guidance until January.
Finally, the budget question cuts both ways. If Congress lands far below the $1.5 trillion request, some of the optimism already built into defense stocks could come out.
What the Price Already Assumes
At roughly $203, RTX trades near 32 times trailing earnings and about 26 times the midpoint of this year's guidance. That is a full multiple for an industrial company.
The bull case is the order book. A backlog of about 3.5 times annual sales gives RTX years of visibility, and the average analyst target near $231 implies roughly 14% upside.
The bear case has a number too. The stock traded as low as about $167 within the past year, nearly 18% below today's price. A disappointing 2027 outlook or a sharp budget cut could send it back toward that level.
One more trait matters on a nervous day. RTX carries a beta near 0.3, which means its shares have historically moved far less than the broad market.
The Bottom Line
Tonight's results will move headlines, and possibly futures. They will not change the engines already flying or the missiles already on order.
RTX gets paid by two very different customers, the Pentagon and the world's airlines, and it carries a record backlog split almost evenly between them.
The stock is not cheap, and the one-time boosts in its latest quarter will fade. But for an investor who wants steadier footing while tech corrects and Washington counts votes, it is a name built for exactly this kind of week.
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