We are at a level only seen twice in 150 years
There is a number Wall Street is quietly tracking that the financial press has barely mentioned all month.
It is called the Shiller CAPE ratio. It measures the price of the S&P 500 against ten years of inflation-adjusted earnings... smoothing out the noise of any single quarter.
Right now it sits near 41.
In 150 years of data, that level has only been reached twice. The first time was 1929. The second was 1999.
You already know what came next in both cases.
Today the S&P 500 set another all-time high. The PCE inflation report came in at its hottest reading in almost three years.
The market rallied on the inflation print. That is what melt-up euphoria looks like... and the people who lived through 2000 will tell you it does not last.
Ray Dalio is saying it. Goldman is saying it. Morgan Stanley is saying it...
The next ten years are not going to look like the last ten.
A colleague just shared something I think every reader of this letter needs to see. It is not options. It is not crypto. It is a way to keep working in a market like this one... without trying to outguess it.
See the presentation below while it is still live.
Talk soon,
Greg
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