$105 crude could unlock market rally

Pre-Market Brief | Tuesday, May 5, 2026

Where Futures Sit

Calmer tape after Monday's selloff. S&P 500 futures are essentially flat at 7,231.25. Dow futures are up 20 points to 49,099. Nasdaq 100 futures are unchanged near 27,776. The VIX is up 7.65 percent to 18.29, the highest level in two weeks. Monday closed sharply lower as the Dow tumbled roughly 550 points, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both retreated from Friday's record highs, and risk got reset on renewed Middle East fears.

Macro Pulse

Crude is finally easing. WTI is down 1.12 percent at $105.23. Brent is back below $113. The reset followed Monday's spike when Iran launched its first missile and drone attack on the United Arab Emirates since the April 8 ceasefire took effect. Iran also fired two drones at a vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, and the US reportedly sunk Iranian patrol boats in response. The ceasefire is fraying. Bitcoin pushed past $80,000 for the second time, last at $80,289. With 63 percent of the S&P 500 having reported through Friday, blended Q1 earnings growth sits at a stunning 27.1 percent per FactSet. Friday's April nonfarm payrolls report remains the data point of the week.

Tickers To Watch

PLTR: Reported a clean Q1 beat after the close last night. EPS of $0.33 versus $0.28 expected. Revenue of $1.633 billion versus $1.54 billion expected. Revenue grew 85 percent year over year. Full-year 2026 revenue guide lifted to $7.656 billion at the midpoint, implying 71 percent growth. Shares moved modestly higher in after-hours trading on the print.

PFE: Reports before the bell. Street looking for $0.72 EPS on $13.79 billion in revenue. GLP-1 commentary will move the tape.

PYPL: Reports before the bell. Consensus calls for $1.27 EPS on $8.05 billion in revenue. Watch payment volume and active account trends.

BUD: Anheuser-Busch InBev up more than 7 percent premarket after beating with $0.97 EPS on $15.27 billion in revenue.

PINS: Up 15.5 percent in extended trading Monday. Q1 revenue of $1.01 billion topped the $966 million estimate. Strong Q2 revenue guide.

ON: Down 4 percent after hours despite topping estimates. Q1 EPS of $0.64 versus $0.60 expected. Stock fell on cautious forward commentary.

AMD: Reports after the close. Consensus is $1.29 EPS on $9.89 billion in revenue. The print is the biggest catalyst of the week for chips.

BRK.B: First trading day after the post-Buffett shareholder meeting. Q1 results beat. Cash pile climbed to nearly $397 billion. Buybacks remained modest at $234 million.

XLE, XOM, CVX: Energy names finally giving back as crude eases. Watch for stabilization, not capitulation, while Hormuz remains contested.

Bottom Line

The first real volatility check of May arrived yesterday. The Dow shed 550 points, the VIX is back near 18, and a new front in the Middle East proved that "fragile ceasefire" is not a phrase, it is a state. AMD tonight will tell us whether the AI capex story can reaccelerate into mid-2026 or whether the Meta and Microsoft reactions are the new template. Let crude settle. Let AMD print. Let Friday's payrolls hit. Then make decisions.

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