The number that could set the tone for June

Record Market and a Jobs Week

This week brings heavy labor data while markets hit record concentration levels. The Mag 7 now represents 32% of the S&P 500.

Does this screams danger? Time to consider bonds as yields cross above 5%?
Monday ISM manufacturing. Tuesday the April job openings report. Wednesday private payrolls and the ISM services read. Then Friday the May employment report.

Friday should be the single number most likely to move rates, yields, and sentiment.

For context, April payrolls came in near 115,000, comfortably above what economists had penciled in, with unemployment holding around 4.3 percent.

Last week's inflation data showed Americans saving less, which means households carry a thinner cushion against any shock.

June has historically been the weakest month for stocks in a midterm election year, and more than one strategist is now openly discussing a summer pullback after this long climb.

This is not a forecast. Records can stretch further than anyone expects, and a strong jobs number could extend the run.

Greg

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The number that could set the tone for June

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