Pre-Market Brief | Thursday, August 13, 2026
Research Desk · August 13, 2026
Cisco beat every line and raised guidance.
The stock is down more than 5 percent.
Oil is falling with the Strait of Hormuz still shut.
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Where Futures Sit
Dow futures up 102 points, or 0.2 percent. S&P 500 futures up 0.2 percent. Nasdaq 100 futures up just 0.1 percent, held back by Cisco.
Wednesday closed higher on a tame CPI print, with the S&P 500 within reach of a record.
Macro Pulse
July PPI at 8:30 AM ET. Forecasters look for roughly 0.1 percent on the headline.
Brent near $88 and WTI near $82, both lower after a six-session run that lifted Brent about 12 percent.
Ten-year Treasury at 4.67 percent. September hike odds near 36 percent.
When Good Numbers Move The Wrong Way
Two prices are going the wrong direction this morning, and the fundamentals are not the reason for either.
Cisco first. Revenue rose 18 percent to $17.25 billion against a $16.83 billion estimate, adjusted earnings beat at $1.22, and fiscal 2027 guidance landed far above the Street. The stock is indicated down about 5.6 percent from Wednesday’s $123.88 close.
Picture a restaurant booked solid for eight straight quarters that has just raised its menu prices. The dining room is packed. At 57 percent higher on the year and near 40 times earnings, the answer on margins had to be flawless.
Crude is the mirror image. Fourteen vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, against a pre-war count near 120 a day, and the IEA sees a shortfall of 1.8 million barrels a day this quarter.
Oil fell anyway. US inventories rose 17.4 million barrels last week, the largest build since early 2023, and the agency cut its demand forecast by a further 510,000 barrels a day.
A six-lane highway squeezed to one lane still moves traffic once drivers stop panicking. That is a war premium draining out, not a blockade ending.
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Tickers To Watch
CSCO: Down 5.6 percent after a beat and a raise. The reaction is the story.
AMAT: Reports after the close. Street looks for $3.39 on $9.00 billion.
XOM, CVX: Watch for follow-through if crude keeps unwinding the premium.
CBRS: Down 17 percent on a revenue miss.
NFLX: Pershing Square disclosed a 3.15 million share stake.
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Bottom Line
Cisco delivered a quarter almost nobody could fault. Crude has a real shortfall on the books. Both prices fell.
Fundamentals set direction over years. Expectations set the price this morning. Confusing the two is how sound analysis turns into a poor entry.
If you added energy exposure on the war premium, you own a position priced by negotiation headlines rather than by barrels. Size it accordingly, and read the PPI print before acting.
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