Good morning,
Let's do this...
Last week the S&P 500 slipped about 1.6 percent and the Nasdaq gave back nearly 3 percent, and the headlines blamed the usual suspect... the chipmakers.
However .. on more than one day last week, most of the market actually rose while the index fell... eight of the eleven S&P sectors finished green on Thursday even as the tape looked red.
And the equal-weight version of the index held up better than the cap-weighted one.
That is the signature of a rotation, not a collapse.
Money is not leaving stocks. It is leaving the crowded corner, the overhyped names.
The hedge fund legend who beat the S&P 500 by more than 18 times in 2025 on a return-on-cash basis and achieved 20 consecutive winning years says Trump is preparing his biggest market move yet.
He's calling it "Project 2026" — and he's revealing the ONE ticker positioned to capture it all.
This week we will see a wave of second-quarter earnings, and the bar is high... analysts are looking for something in the neighborhood of 22 percent profit growth for the S&P 500.
When rates stay high, the classic income names... utilities, REITs, telecoms... tend to struggle, because they carry a lot of debt and they now compete directly with bond yields that are finally attractive again.
But there is a different kind of business that actually benenfits when rates stay high. An insurer.
Which brings me to the name I want on your radar this week... Chubb, ticker CB.
Chubb is the largest publicly traded property and casualty insurer in the world, and it is about as close to a fortress as this industry gets. It has raised its dividend for 33 straight years.
Its payout ratio sits down around 13 to 14 percent, meaning the dividend is covered many times over and has enormous room to keep growing.
And its investment income has been climbing as it reinvests at today's higher rates... exactly the dynamic I just walked you through.
President Trump is putting millions of his own money into U.S. stocks. The S&P 500 just added $11 trillion of value in 7 weeks.
This is what a Melt Up looks like. But history says it's not over yet.
One Florida millionaire says you may have just days to act.
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The current yield is modest... a little over 1 percent.
This is not a name you buy for a fat check today.
when You buy it for capital preservation, a payout that compounds relentlessly off a very safe base, and a business that happens to be leaning into the rate environment rather than fighting it.
The stock also carries a slightly negative beta, which in plain English means it has tended to zig when the market zags...
... useful when the technology trade gets shaky.
Chubb ran to an all-time high near 365 dollars in early July and has since eased back into the mid-330s.
Analysts are broadly positive, but their price targets cluster right around where the stock trades today, and a few have flagged that insurance pricing is softening after several very strong years.
So this is a quality-at-a-fair-price story, not a bargain.
Chubb reports its second-quarter results this week, with the call on Wednesday the 22nd.
It's a story that I believe Washington and Wall Street have gone (and continue to go) to great lengths to suppress...
...it involves an unfortunate economic event that recently occurred for the first time in over 100 years…
it's an event that should have made news around the world.
I will see you before the open on Monday.
-Greg
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