CPI Day... One Number Resets the Year
The April inflation print drops at 8:30 a.m. ET. Consensus is 3.7% headline, 2.7% core. The number that matters is core month-over-month... if it breaks above 0.3%, it tells us higher oil is leaking into everything else. That changes the Fed math.
Futures are softer this morning. Nasdaq off 0.7%, S&P off 0.4%. The melt-up paused but didn't break. WTI sits near $101 after Trump called the Iran ceasefire "on massive life support."
JPMorgan now sees 2026 rate cuts as essentially hopeless. The Cleveland Fed is already nowcasting May CPI at 3.89%. The market doesn't yet believe them.
Tickers I'm watching: HIMS down 16% on a Q1 miss. Sea Ltd (SE) and Under Armour (UAA) report before the bell. QUBT ripping 13% on revenue.
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