Pre-Market Brief | Tuesday, August 18, 2026
Research Desk · August 18, 2026
Three ships crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday. Before the war, 130 crossed every day.
The 60-day clock ran out Monday with nobody at the table.
Monday closed lower across the board. The S&P 500 fell 0.52 percent to 7,745.06. The Dow gave up 272 points.
Energy was the exception, up 1.4 percent while the rest of the tape leaked lower.
Macro Pulse
The memorandum between Washington and Tehran expired Monday. Sixty days, no deal, no talks underway. Iran's foreign minister says there is nothing resembling a ceasefire.
President Trump said he is in no hurry, threatened to bomb Oman if it gets in the way, and called declaring the strait US territory a good idea.
Brent settled above $90. WTI sits near $85. That waterway normally carries about a fifth of the world's seaborne oil.
The 30-year Treasury yield touched 5.3 percent, its highest since 2007. Fed minutes land Wednesday. Futures markets put September rate hike odds near 30 percent.
.. no matter what happens next in Iran... Any wealth you hold in the stock market is now at risk of crashing and staying in the red for 10 years or more - even if oil drops... and even if we don't see any new wars start.
That's because they say a new quiet threat is about to hit
Tickers To Watch
XOM, CVX: Both posted a surge in second-quarter profit on the last oil spike.
XLE: The one green sector Monday. Watch whether the bid holds past noon.
DAL, LUV: Jet fuel is an airline's second-largest cost line. It moves with Brent.
HD: Reports before the open. Consensus near $4.73 a share on about $47.2 billion in revenue.
He found a stock so unusual and powerful that it generated a 46,950% return between 2002 and 2026, according to Morningstar.
Today I'm going to give you the name and stock ticker for this stock, because I believe the gains could be extraordinary in the next few years too.
Stock Highlight: Exxon Mobil
An integrated major is a toll booth on a road nobody can avoid. When crude jumps, the barrels already in the ground reprice overnight. The cost of pulling them out does not move at all.
That is why Exxon and Chevron both posted a jump in second-quarter profit on the last leg of this conflict. Nothing about their operations improved. The price of what they own went up.
Here is the part left out of the pitch. Buying the majors here is a bet that the war continues.
Crude traded above $114 in April, sat in the low $70s in July, and is back near $90. Same barrel, priced three different ways in five months, and the swing factor is a negotiation nobody is holding.
Click here to learn more about this unicorn play.
Bottom Line
Oil reaches a retirement portfolio long before it reaches the gas pump. It arrives through the inflation report, and from there through the Fed.
Three members dissented in favor of a hike at the last meeting. Wednesday's minutes will show how close that argument came. Crude above $90 makes their case for them.
The market spent two years positioning for the next cut. The long end is starting to price something else.
If you draw income within five years, the exposure worth checking today is how much of the portfolio was built on rates coming down from here.
"I'm revealing my 'American Affordability Project' to help folks adjust to higher prices.
My goal is to show my strategy to 50,000 people in the next 12 months."
Click to find out how.
Disclaimer:
This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. All opinions expressed are based on publicly available data believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed for accuracy or completeness. Investing and trading involve risk, including the possible loss of principal. Always perform your own due diligence and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Paid ads from 3rd parties are clearly identified. We do NOT specifically endorse these products nor are we responsible for the content of these ads. You should assume an affiliate payment will be made to us if you click a link or buy a product.