S&P record high: 8 weeks up, can this continue?

Wall of belief" vs "wall of worry

Futures are pointing higher this morning. Dow futures are up 299 points. The S&P 500 contract is bid 52 points higher, or roughly seven-tenths of a percent. Nasdaq futures are leading, up 305 points and over one percent on the back of another peace-deal headline out of the Middle East.

The S&P 500 closed Friday at a record high of 7,473.47. That print marked the eighth straight weekly gain for the index, the longest such streak since December 2023. As of this morning, the index is working on its ninth. The tape is fully repriced for "peace, lower oil, sticky-but-cooling inflation," and the question for a thoughtful investor is no longer whether the rally continues this week. The question is what is actually being priced in right now, and what would have to happen to disturb it.

This morning's driver is a familiar story. President Trump said Monday that talks with Iran are proceeding nicely. WTI crude fell more than four percent overnight. Micron jumped over five percent in early trade after the President made positive remarks about the company. Nvidia, AMD, and Intel are all trading higher in sympathy. South Korea's Kospi hit a fresh record. Japan's Nikkei is sitting above 65,000.

It is the same Iran-deal-is-imminent story the market rallied on in March, in April, and twice already in May. Each prior iteration has been followed by some combination of clarification, walk-back, renewed military deployment, or a new sticking point. As recently as last Thursday, Iran's supreme leader directed enriched uranium to remain inside the country. Ground troops continue to flow into the region. The Strait of Hormuz toll question is still unresolved. The administration itself has said it is willing to wait "a few more days."

None of that means the rally is wrong. It means the rally is built on belief.

There is a real difference between a market climbing a wall of worry... where every piece of bad news that fails to end the rally adds to conviction... and a market climbing a wall of belief, where every piece of news that confirms the story is treated as confirmation and every piece that contradicts it is treated as noise. 

What to watch this morning

10:00 a.m. ET. Conference Board Consumer Confidence for May. This is the single most important data print on today's calendar and the first real test of the consumer narrative in a holiday-shortened week. April's print already showed expected spending declining across nearly every discretionary services category. A soft headline number into a market priced for perfection is exactly the kind of catalyst the tape has been ignoring for two months.

8:30 a.m. ET. Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Survey. Less market-moving than last week's headline manufacturing print, but a useful cross-check on services-sector momentum.

10:30 a.m. ET. Dallas Fed Manufacturing. Worth pairing with the Philadelphia data for the regional picture.

On the scanner. MU (the morning's headline-driven move; watch for follow-through versus a fade), NVDA / INTC / AMD (semi sympathy moves), XLE and front-month crude (does the overnight oil decline hold through the U.S. session, or do the supreme leader's earlier statements reassert themselves), GLD (gold has been quietly weak as the safety bid fades; watch for any acceleration in either direction), VIX (compression continuing right into a record high), and the 10-year yield (HSBC's "danger zone" warning from last week is still on the table even though Friday saw yields moderate).

The market is allowed to do what it wants. But after eight weeks of gains, a record high on Friday, and a fifth peace-deal rally on the same essential storyline, the asymmetry of risk has shifted. The cost of being wrong on the upside is missing some performance. The cost of being wrong on the downside is letting an unfinished story decide what your portfolio looks like next month.

ad- Only Serious Investors Need Read This

Fellow Investor, If you're fine with quarterly checks from the same boring dividend stocks everyone's been holding for years, you can stop reading now. But if you're serious about creating real monthly income from high-growth stocks—without waiting months for payouts—this message is for you. After thirty years of investing, I've finally found an income strategy that lets you collect monthly payouts from stocks most investors wouldn't even consider for income: 122% income from Nvidia 51% monthly

ad- A: $1,000 into $556,454. Impossible?

I want to show you something that might make you upset. For decades, the biggest banks in America have been using a secret account to collect an average of 29% per year. Your bank never told you about it. It's never been advertised to the general public. But since 2000, this single account has turned $1,000 into over $556,454. Not by picking hot stocks. Not by timing the market. Just by parking money in an account that has averaged 29%... year after year after year. 

ad- Middle East Conflict Lights Fuse on US Debt Bomb

Middle East Conflict Lights Fuse on US Debt Bomb America was already drowning in $38 trillion of debt, but the recent conflict in the Middle East just accelerated the timeline. As oil spikes, a 100-year-old stock market signal that accurately predicted the 2008 and 2020 crashes is flashing a massive "Sell" on dozens of popular U.S. equities. If you hold the wrong stocks when this debt crisis hits, it could wipe out years of gains. Click here to see the 10 popular stocks to dump immediately