Historically, U.S. participation in major wars has often been neutral to positive for the stock market after the initial shock. Markets usually fall when conflict begins due to uncertainty, but they tend to recover quickly once the economic impact becomes clearer.
For example, after the attack on Pearl Harbor in 1941, the U.S. market initially dropped but the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose about 50% between 1942 and 1945 during World War II. During the Gulf War (1990–1991), the S&P 500 gained roughly 15% in the year following the conflict. Even after the Iraq invasion in 2003, the S&P 500 rose about 26% over the next 12 months.
The reason: wars often trigger government spending, industrial production, and technological investment, which can support economic growth and corporate profits
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